V-Lab
Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
52.56%
decreased by 2.66%
1 Week
54.04%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
58.00%
increased by 2.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8058 | 4.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.1162 | 1.79* |
| βGARCH | 0.8278 | 12.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0975 | -1.56 |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8058 | 4.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1162 | 1.79* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8278 | 12.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0975 | -1.56 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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