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V-Lab
V-Lab

Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

52.56%

decreased by 2.66%

1 Week

54.04%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Month

58.00%

increased by 2.78%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8058
4.04***
αARCH0.1162
1.79*
βGARCH0.8278
12.73***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0975
-1.56

0.944

Persistence

12d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8058
4.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1162
1.79*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8278
12.73***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0975
-1.56

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days