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V-Lab

Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

51.93%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

53.65%

increased by 1.76%

1 Month

58.18%

increased by 6.29%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7943
3.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1193
1.80*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8240
12.40***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1110
-1.63

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days