V-Lab
Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
51.93%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
53.65%
increased by 1.76%
1 Month
58.18%
increased by 6.29%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7943 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1193 | 1.80* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8240 | 12.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1110 | -1.63 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
Other Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs