V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
16.46%
increased by 0.95%
1 Week
16.76%
increased by 1.25%
1 Month
17.80%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2820 | 8.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0859 | 9.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8986 | 89.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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