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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

19.88%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

20.08%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

20.82%

increased by 1.02%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 9, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.1540
6.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0737
40.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9939
1,121.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9820
5.92***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

113 days