V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
19.88%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
20.08%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
20.82%
increased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1540 | 6.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0737 | 40.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9939 | 1,121.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9820 | 5.92*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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