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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

17.68%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

18.00%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

18.90%

increased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 9, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.0199
1.87*
βGARCH0.8803
86.25***
γleverage0.1123
7.42***
λ₁tau intercept0.0121
1.39
λ₂forecast adj.0.0331
1.80*
λ₃tau persistence0.9624
46.71***

0.956

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0199
1.87*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8803
86.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1123
7.42***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0121
1.39
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0331
1.80*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9624
46.71***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

16 days