V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
18.77%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
19.14%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
20.25%
increased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0203 | 7.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8790 | 273.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1122 | 26.72*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0131 | 6.56*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0347 | 4.83*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9606 | 120.94*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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