V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
16.31%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
16.86%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
18.42%
increased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0200 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8796 | 275.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1128 | 26.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0125 | 6.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0337 | 4.85*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9618 | 125.12*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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