V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
17.68%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
18.00%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
18.90%
increased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0199 | 1.87* |
| βGARCH | 0.8803 | 86.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.1123 | 7.42*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0121 | 1.39 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0331 | 1.80* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9624 | 46.71*** |
0.956
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0199 | 1.87* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8803 | 86.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1123 | 7.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0121 | 1.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0331 | 1.80* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9624 | 46.71*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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