V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.44%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
17.07%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
18.75%
increased by 2.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0200 | 7.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8789 | 274.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1129 | 26.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0131 | 6.57*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0348 | 4.84*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9604 | 120.45*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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