V-Lab
Canary Litecoin Etf MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
65.66%
increased by 21.46%
1 Week
55.31%
increased by 11.11%
1 Month
52.08%
increased by 7.88%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 86 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 36.68*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 9.5472 | 5.34*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0762 | 0.55 |
0.250
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 36.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.5472 | 5.34*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0762 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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