Canary Litecoin Etf MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
52.16%
1 Week
60.32%
1 Month
65.63%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.5000 | 23.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0929 | 14.36*** |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -23.54*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 4.4996 | 23.26*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7404 | 29.65*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0951 | 3.22*** |
0.343
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 23.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0929 | 14.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -23.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.4996 | 23.26*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7404 | 29.65*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0951 | 3.22*** |
Persistence:
0.343
Half-life:
1 days
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