V-Lab
Canary Litecoin Etf APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
42.43%
1 Week
42.60%
1 Month
43.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 2.73 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.61 |
| αARCH | 0.0154 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8669 | 15.86*** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
| δpower | 2.7271 | 2.10** |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.61 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0154 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8669 | 15.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.7271 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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