V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long ONDS Daily ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
194.45%
decreased by 6.26%
1 Week
198.44%
decreased by 2.27%
1 Month
202.30%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0695 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6640 | 7.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1696 | -0.71 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.22** |
Persistence:
0.721
Half-life:
2 days
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