Leverage Shares 2X Long CNC Daily ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
109.26%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
109.26%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
109.26%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2066 | 2.30** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9212 | 43.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -0.09 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.74* |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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