Leverage Shares 2X Long CNC Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
134.04%
1 Week
144.55%
1 Month
183.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2621 | 74.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8349 | 275.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2621 | -75.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 12.31*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0653 | 0.71 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9347 | 23.44*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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