V-Lab
Amplify Samsung Sofr ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.44%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
1.48%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
1.63%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 76% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1229 | 19.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6812 | 75.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0930 | 7.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0010 | 0.61 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5398 | 5.71*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4602 | 5.01*** |
Persistence:
0.851
Half-life:
4 days
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