V-Lab
Amplify Samsung Sofr ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
0.97%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
1.12%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
1.40%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 74% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 74% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 51 | |
| αARCH | 0.1242 | 4.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6794 | 21.15*** |
| γleverage | 0.0920 | 2.47** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0010 | 1.02 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5376 | 3.71*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4624 | 3.33*** |
0.850
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1242 | 4.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6794 | 21.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0920 | 2.47** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0010 | 1.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5376 | 3.71*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4624 | 3.33*** |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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