V-Lab
Amplify Samsung Sofr ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1.51%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
1.59%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
1.79%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0554 | 6.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1691 | 8.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7805 | 38.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0479 | 0.83 |
| γ2 | -0.1571 | -1.58 |
| γ3 | 0.2585 | 2.96*** |
| γ4 | -0.2765 | -2.99*** |
| γ5 | 0.1868 | 1.49 |
| γ6 | -0.1316 | -0.82 |
| γ7 | 0.2273 | 1.70* |
| γ8 | -0.4626 | -5.85*** |
| γ9 | 0.5201 | 10.10*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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