V-Lab
Amplify Samsung Sofr ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
0.94%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
0.97%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
1.07%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0001 | 1.23 |
| αARCH | 0.0582 | 5.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9249 | 136.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.0338 | 1.76* |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0001 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0582 | 5.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9249 | 136.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0338 | 1.76* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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