iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
107.51%
decreased by 4.25%
1 Week
105.41%
decreased by 6.35%
1 Month
97.79%
decreased by 13.97%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 367% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 367% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1036 | 3.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0223 | 2.43** |
| βGARCH | 0.9149 | 70.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.0817 | 3.09*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1036 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0223 | 2.43** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9149 | 70.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0817 | 3.09*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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