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iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

25.58%

increased by 0.90%

1 Week

25.97%

increased by 1.29%

1 Month

27.29%

increased by 2.61%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 368% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 368% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0925
2.97***
αARCH0.0217
2.35**
βGARCH0.9185
74.98***
γleverage0.0797
3.17***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0925
2.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0217
2.35**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9185
74.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0797
3.17***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days