iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
34.12%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
34.12%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Month
34.13%
decreased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 368% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 368% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0928 | 2.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0217 | 2.35** |
| βGARCH | 0.9184 | 74.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.0798 | 3.17*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0928 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0217 | 2.35** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9184 | 74.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0798 | 3.17*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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