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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

23.70%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

24.20%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

25.88%

increased by 2.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 364% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 364% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0935
2.98***
αARCH0.0219
2.36**
βGARCH0.9181
74.39***
γleverage0.0798
3.16***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0935
2.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0219
2.36**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9181
74.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0798
3.16***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days