V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
23.70%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
24.20%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
25.88%
increased by 2.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 364% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 364% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0935 | 2.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0219 | 2.36** |
| βGARCH | 0.9181 | 74.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.0798 | 3.16*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0935 | 2.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0219 | 2.36** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9181 | 74.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0798 | 3.16*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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