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iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

34.12%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Week

34.12%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Month

34.13%

decreased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 368% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 368% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0928
2.97***
αARCH0.0217
2.35**
βGARCH0.9184
74.89***
γleverage0.0798
3.17***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0928
2.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0217
2.35**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9184
74.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0798
3.17***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days