V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
26.86%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
27.18%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
28.30%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 362% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0935 | 11.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0221 | 9.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9178 | 296.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0799 | 12.60*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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