V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.55%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
23.78%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
24.49%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1835 | 7.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0758 | 5.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8819 | 51.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0991 | -1.70* |
| γ2 | 0.2387 | 2.44** |
| γ3 | -0.3141 | -4.48*** |
| γ4 | 0.3353 | 5.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.2345 | -4.35*** |
| γ6 | 0.0943 | 1.69* |
| γ7 | -0.0533 | -0.83 |
| γ8 | 0.0573 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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