V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
23.26%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
23.52%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
24.32%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1919 | 7.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0771 | 5.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8806 | 51.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0979 | -1.66* |
| γ2 | 0.2369 | 2.40** |
| γ3 | -0.3126 | -4.40*** |
| γ4 | 0.3330 | 5.62*** |
| γ5 | -0.2320 | -4.26*** |
| γ6 | 0.0930 | 1.64 |
| γ7 | -0.0537 | -0.82 |
| γ8 | 0.0583 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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