V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.61%
increased by 0.40%
1 Week
26.59%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
26.50%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1794 | 7.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.0757 | 5.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8816 | 51.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0977 | -1.70* |
| γ2 | 0.2351 | 2.44** |
| γ3 | -0.3106 | -4.48*** |
| γ4 | 0.3346 | 5.75*** |
| γ5 | -0.2376 | -4.45*** |
| γ6 | 0.0982 | 1.80* |
| γ7 | -0.0546 | -0.87 |
| γ8 | 0.0565 | 1.22 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1794 | 7.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0757 | 5.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8816 | 51.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0977 | -1.70* |
| γ2 | 0.2351 | 2.44** |
| γ3 | -0.3106 | -4.48*** |
| γ4 | 0.3346 | 5.75*** |
| γ5 | -0.2376 | -4.45*** |
| γ6 | 0.0982 | 1.80* |
| γ7 | -0.0546 | -0.87 |
| γ8 | 0.0565 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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