V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
22.59%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
24.21%
increased by 1.62%
1 Month
27.15%
increased by 4.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7649 | 22.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.1592 | 5.46*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1193 | 1.64 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1149 | 2.22** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8594 | 12.83*** |
0.845
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7649 | 22.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1592 | 5.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1193 | 1.64 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1149 | 2.22** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8594 | 12.83*** |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
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