V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
23.39%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
24.02%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
25.49%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7641 | 57.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1585 | 17.29*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1427 | 1.17 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1376 | 1.37 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8319 | 6.50*** |
Persistence:
0.843
Half-life:
4 days
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