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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

23.45%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

24.12%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

25.36%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7640
57.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1586
17.29***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1429
1.17
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1381
1.37
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8314
6.48***

Persistence:

0.843

Half-life:

4 days