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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

26.68%

decreased by 1.46%

1 Week

26.66%

decreased by 1.48%

1 Month

27.10%

decreased by 1.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7652
57.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1595
17.41***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1175
1.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1141
1.48
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8606
8.72***

Persistence:

0.845

Half-life:

4 days