V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
26.68%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
26.66%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Month
27.10%
decreased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7652 | 57.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1595 | 17.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1175 | 1.24 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1141 | 1.48 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8606 | 8.72*** |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
Other iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs