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V-Lab

iShares MSCI France ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

16.69%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

16.84%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

17.29%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI France ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 342% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 342% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0355
2.23**
βGARCH0.8649
73.54***
γleverage0.1214
6.74***
λ₁tau intercept0.0044
1.29
λ₂forecast adj.0.0150
2.21**
λ₃tau persistence0.9828
129.29***

0.961

Persistence

18d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0355
2.23**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8649
73.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1214
6.74***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0044
1.29
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0150
2.21**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9828
129.29***

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

18 days