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iShares MSCI France ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

17.37%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

17.64%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Month

18.60%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI France ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 296% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 296% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0368
4.37***
αARCH0.0368
2.66***
βGARCH0.8939
88.91***
γleverage0.1092
4.45***

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0368
4.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0368
2.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8939
88.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1092
4.45***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days