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V-Lab

iShares MSCI France ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.94%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

13.46%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

15.19%

increased by 1.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI France ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 300% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0373
17.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0368
10.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8932
354.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1105
17.92***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days