iShares MSCI France ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
18.45%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
18.67%
increased by 1.30%
1 Month
19.47%
increased by 2.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 296% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 296% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0368 | 4.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0368 | 2.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8939 | 88.91*** |
| γleverage | 0.1092 | 4.45*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0368 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0368 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8939 | 88.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1092 | 4.45*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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