V-Lab
iShares MSCI France ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.94%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
13.46%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
15.19%
increased by 1.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 300% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0373 | 17.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0368 | 10.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8932 | 354.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1105 | 17.92*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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