V-Lab
iShares MSCI France ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
17.63%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
17.90%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
18.84%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 295% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0374 | 17.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0371 | 10.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8934 | 353.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1095 | 17.76*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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