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V-Lab

iShares MSCI France ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

13.76%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

14.22%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

15.78%

increased by 1.62%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI France ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 298% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 298% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0370
4.38***
αARCH0.0369
2.66***
βGARCH0.8934
88.74***
γleverage0.1100
4.47***

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0370
4.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0369
2.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8934
88.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1100
4.47***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days