V-Lab
iShares MSCI France ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
13.76%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
14.22%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
15.78%
increased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 298% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 298% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0370 | 4.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.0369 | 2.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8934 | 88.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.1100 | 4.47*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0370 | 4.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0369 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8934 | 88.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1100 | 4.47*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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