Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
5.88%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
5.72%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
5.24%
decreased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0035 | 0.72 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8737 | 9.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.1451 | 1.15 |
0.946
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0035 | 0.72 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8737 | 9.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1451 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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