abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
25.09%
increased by 0.44%
1 Week
24.91%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
24.23%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0177 | 3.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0777 | 3.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9225 | 51.54*** |
| γleverage | -0.0292 | -0.71 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0177 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0777 | 3.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9225 | 51.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0292 | -0.71 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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