Skip to main content
V-Lab

abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

19.80%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

19.67%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Month

19.22%

decreased by 1.35%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 102% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0380
12.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0875
6.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9032
148.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0442
-2.59***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days