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V-Lab

abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

24.60%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Week

24.26%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Month

23.11%

decreased by 2.46%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 105% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0349
12.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0844
6.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9088
154.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0432
-2.62***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days