V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
24.60%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
24.26%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Month
23.11%
decreased by 2.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 105% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0349 | 12.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0844 | 6.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9088 | 154.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0432 | -2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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