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abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

23.66%

increased by 3.95%

1 Week

23.49%

increased by 3.78%

1 Month

22.84%

increased by 3.13%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

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graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0192
3.15***
αARCH0.0802
2.98***
βGARCH0.9191
49.36***
γleverage-0.0310
-0.73

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0192
3.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0802
2.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9191
49.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0310
-0.73

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days