abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.07%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
19.02%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
18.85%
decreased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0184 | 3.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0789 | 3.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9212 | 50.14*** |
| γleverage | -0.0308 | -0.74 |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0184 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0789 | 3.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9212 | 50.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0308 | -0.74 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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