abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
19.80%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
19.67%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
19.22%
decreased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 102% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0380 | 12.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0875 | 6.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9032 | 148.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0442 | -2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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