V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
23.66%
increased by 3.95%
1 Week
23.49%
increased by 3.78%
1 Month
22.84%
increased by 3.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0192 | 3.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0802 | 2.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9191 | 49.36*** |
| γleverage | -0.0310 | -0.73 |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0192 | 3.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0802 | 2.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9191 | 49.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0310 | -0.73 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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