V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.41%
1 Week
21.53%
1 Month
18.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 11% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.91 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0268 | 17.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1278 | 34.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8599 | 206.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0591 | -4.68*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9130 | 14.60*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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