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V-Lab

Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

23.70%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

23.41%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Month

22.46%

decreased by 2.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 87% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0280
5.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1223
4.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8777
70.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5569
-7.20***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
1.21

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days