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V-Lab
V-Lab

Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

27.69%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

27.69%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

27.69%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9025
3.91***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9532
9.02***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.5326
-0.70

0.953

Persistence

14d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9025
3.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9532
9.02***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.5326
-0.70

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days