V-Lab
Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.69%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
27.69%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
27.69%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9025 | 3.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9532 | 9.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5326 | -0.70 |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9025 | 3.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9532 | 9.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5326 | -0.70 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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