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Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

26.06%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

26.06%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

26.06%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9895
4.11***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9600
10.02***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1333
-0.25

0.960

Persistence

17d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9895
4.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9600
10.02***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1333
-0.25

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days