V-Lab
Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.76%
1 Week
85.58%
1 Month
46,279.85%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 1.0000 | 74.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.06 |
| γleverage | -0.0100 | -0.38 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0500 | 3.57*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9500 | 28.86*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.0000 | 74.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.06 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0100 | -0.38 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0500 | 3.57*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9500 | 28.86*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
Other Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs