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V-Lab

Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

27.76%

decreased by 31.32%

1 Week

85.58%

increased by 26.50%

1 Month

46,279.85%

increased by 46,220.77%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026
Stationarity Enforced
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH1.0000
74.74***
βGARCH0.0000
0.06
γleverage-0.0100
-0.38
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.0500
3.57***
λ₃tau persistence0.9500
28.86***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
74.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.06
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0100
-0.38
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0500
3.57***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9500
28.86***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days