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V-Lab

Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

6.40%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

4.13%

decreased by 2.39%

1 Month

2.07%

decreased by 4.45%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0427
1.89*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5103
2,288.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0425
-1.89*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0003
1.81*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0683
7.00***

Persistence:

0.532

Half-life:

1 days