Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
20.06%
1 Week
2,188,824,670,913.59%
1 Month
3,783,466,664,317,264,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.5000 | 957.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1394 | 1,314.80*** |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -950.57*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8004 | 779.36*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.10 |
0.389
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 957.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1394 | 1,314.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -950.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8004 | 779.36*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.389
Half-life:
1 days
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