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V-Lab

Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

25.61%

increased by 6.28%

1 Week

27.36%

increased by 8.03%

1 Month

30.75%

increased by 11.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5596
602.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
150.51***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3842
0.31
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
0.30
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.810

Half-life:

3 days