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Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

20.06%

increased by 1.02%

1 Week

2,188,824,670,913.59%

increased by 2,188,824,670,894.55%

1 Month

3,783,466,664,317,264,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 3,783,466,664,317,264,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.5000
957.85***
βGARCH0.1394
1,314.80***
γleverage-0.5000
-950.57***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.8004
779.36***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.10

0.389

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
957.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1394
1,314.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-950.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8004
779.36***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.10

Persistence:

0.389

Half-life:

1 days