Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
24.89%
1 Week
24.89%
1 Month
24.89%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 17.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.4588 | 0.47 |
| αscore | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βpersistence | 0.9924 | 0.17 |
| νDF | 17.0858 | 0.02 |
0.992
Persistence91d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.4588 | 0.47 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9924 | 0.17 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 17.0858 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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