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Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

24.89%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

24.89%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

24.89%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 17.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~91 daysv = 17.09 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.4588
0.47
αscore0.0000
0.00
βpersistence0.9924
0.17
νDF17.0858
0.02

0.992

Persistence

91d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.4588
0.47
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0000
0.00
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9924
0.17
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

17.0858
0.02

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

91 days