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V-Lab
V-Lab

Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

25.41%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

25.41%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

25.41%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026
Boundary Parameters
Hessian SE

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 13.04 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5627
0.52
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9990
1.33
νDF13.0360
0.06

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5627
0.52
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1.33
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

13.0360
0.06

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days