V-Lab
Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.41%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
25.41%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
25.41%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Boundary Parameters
Hessian SE
Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 13.04 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5627 | 0.52 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 1.33 |
| νDF | 13.0360 | 0.06 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5627 | 0.52 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1.33 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 13.0360 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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