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V-Lab

Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

24.51%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

24.51%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

24.51%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 592 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 16.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3844
0.09
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9988
0.12
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

16.6004
0.01

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

592 days