Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
23.76%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
24.92%
increased by 0.91%
1 Month
25.17%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2398 | 3.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.2298 | 0.65 |
0.115
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2398 | 3.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2298 | 0.65 |
Persistence:
0.115
Half-life:
0 days
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