Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
22.32%
increased by 2.79%
1 Week
23.44%
increased by 3.91%
1 Month
23.57%
increased by 4.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The leverage effect is captured by the negative gamma (gamma = -0.3410), confirming that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks of equal magnitude.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3678 | 13.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | -0.0334 | -1.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | -0.7255 | -16.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3410 | -14.12*** |
Persistence:
-0.725
Half-life:
-
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