Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
15.79%
increased by 2.44%
1 Week
16.14%
increased by 2.79%
1 Month
17.40%
increased by 4.05%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 326% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 326% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0214 | 2.10** |
| αARCH | 0.1704 | 8.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9771 | 206.22*** |
| γleverage | -0.1056 | -5.24*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0214 | 2.10** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1704 | 8.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9771 | 206.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1056 | -5.24*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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