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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

16.82%

increased by 4.00%

1 Week

17.23%

increased by 4.41%

1 Month

18.61%

increased by 5.79%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.71) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0959
9.55***
βGARCH0.8858
88.02***
γleverage0.7135
4.34***

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0959
9.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8858
88.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7135
4.34***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days