Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
23.85%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Week
23.93%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Month
24.22%
decreased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.71) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0960 | 38.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8860 | 351.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7114 | 17.28*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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