Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
16.82%
increased by 4.00%
1 Week
17.23%
increased by 4.41%
1 Month
18.61%
increased by 5.79%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.71) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0959 | 9.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8858 | 88.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.7135 | 4.34*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0959 | 9.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8858 | 88.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7135 | 4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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