V-Lab
iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
2.70%
increased by 2.26%
1 Week
2.64%
increased by 2.20%
1 Month
2.43%
increased by 1.99%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0635 | 5.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9145 | 190.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0071 | -1.23 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
Other iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on ETFs