iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
19.73%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
20.08%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
21.31%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.76) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0074 | 2.28** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0762 | 38.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9090 | 455.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7564 | 23.32*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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