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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

17.29%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

17.53%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

18.39%

increased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 9, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2682
7.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0858
9.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8988
90.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0007
0.68

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days