V-Lab
iShares MSCI Sweden Capped ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.29%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
17.53%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
18.39%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2682 | 7.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0858 | 9.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8988 | 90.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0007 | 0.68 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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