State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.97%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
16.24%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
17.16%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3754 | 9.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0916 | 9.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8885 | 78.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0023 | 2.41** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3754 | 9.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0916 | 9.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8885 | 78.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0023 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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