iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
1.53%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
1.54%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
1.55%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9207 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0723 | 6.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9016 | 61.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4093 | -2.32** |
| γ2 | 0.8238 | 3.13*** |
| γ3 | -0.8765 | -4.08*** |
| γ4 | 0.5629 | 2.80*** |
| γ5 | 0.2179 | 1.40 |
| γ6 | -0.5572 | -3.76*** |
| γ7 | 0.0784 | 0.46 |
| γ8 | 0.7639 | 4.15*** |
| γ9 | -1.1528 | -5.05*** |
| γ10 | 0.7271 | 2.29** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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