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V-Lab

iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

1.49%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

1.49%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

1.47%

decreased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 26, 2002 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9515
3.67***
αARCH0.0716
6.38***
βGARCH0.9022
61.65***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.3693
-2.21**
γ20.7619
3.04***
γ3-0.8541
-4.11***
γ40.5892
2.97***
γ50.1639
1.06
γ6-0.5297
-3.70***
γ70.1202
0.74
γ80.6531
4.18***
γ9-1.0398
-6.80***
γ100.6442
5.49***

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9515
3.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0716
6.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9022
61.65***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.3693
-2.21**
γ20.7619
3.04***
γ3-0.8541
-4.11***
γ40.5892
2.97***
γ50.1639
1.06
γ6-0.5297
-3.70***
γ70.1202
0.74
γ80.6531
4.18***
γ9-1.0398
-6.80***
γ100.6442
5.49***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days