V-Lab
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1.43%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
1.44%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
1.46%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9468 | 3.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0722 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9016 | 61.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3829 | -2.21** |
| γ2 | 0.7827 | 3.01*** |
| γ3 | -0.8519 | -3.94*** |
| γ4 | 0.5481 | 2.71*** |
| γ5 | 0.2229 | 1.43 |
| γ6 | -0.5551 | -3.75*** |
| γ7 | 0.0772 | 0.46 |
| γ8 | 0.7546 | 4.44*** |
| γ9 | -1.1274 | -6.47*** |
| γ10 | 0.6703 | 5.22*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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