V-Lab
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1.21%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
1.23%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
1.28%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9490 | 3.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0719 | 6.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9016 | 60.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3762 | -2.21** |
| γ2 | 0.7719 | 3.02*** |
| γ3 | -0.8505 | -4.02*** |
| γ4 | 0.5635 | 2.82*** |
| γ5 | 0.1981 | 1.28 |
| γ6 | -0.5425 | -3.73*** |
| γ7 | 0.0906 | 0.55 |
| γ8 | 0.7233 | 4.47*** |
| γ9 | -1.1112 | -6.81*** |
| γ10 | 0.6791 | 5.51*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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