iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
2.47%
increased by 1.41%
1 Week
18,402,157,873,466.90%
increased by 18,402,157,873,465.84%
1 Month
697,012,281,096,968,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
increased by 697,012,281,096,968,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 7, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | ||
| 1.0000 | 9,999,900.00 | |
| 0.0000 | 410.00 | |
| -0.0001 | -620.00 | |
| 4.2257 | 11.31 | |
| 0.5774 | 12.08 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Jul 26, 2002 to Jul 2, 2026
Jul 26, 2002 to Jul 2, 2026
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