V-Lab
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1.22%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
1.27%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
1.34%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1176 | 16.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7053 | 33.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0153 | -1.75* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0734 | 2.91*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9266 | 36.06*** |
Persistence:
0.815
Half-life:
3 days
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