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V-Lab

iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

1.22%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

1.27%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

1.34%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 26, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1176
16.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7053
33.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0153
-1.75*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
1.50
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0734
2.91***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9266
36.06***

Persistence:

0.815

Half-life:

3 days