Strive 500 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.21%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
13.43%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
13.99%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 16, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8475 | 63.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1786 | 18.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8838 | 0.66 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
Other Strive 500 ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs