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V-Lab

Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.11%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

4.71%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

6.59%

increased by 2.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2406 trading days (~9.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7497
180.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
70.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.9700
6.86***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9737
48.28***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2406 days