V-Lab
Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.11%
1 Week
4.71%
1 Month
6.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2406 trading days (~9.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7497 | 180.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 70.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.9700 | 6.86*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9737 | 48.28*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2406 days
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