V-Lab
Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
4.54%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
4.70%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
5.18%
increased by 0.89%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0019 | 1.62 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0318 | 0.95 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8601 | 42.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6523 | 1.41 |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 5.64*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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