V-Lab
Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.41%
increased by 0.76%
1 Week
5.54%
increased by 0.89%
1 Month
5.89%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.30) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0994 | 7.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8499 | 38.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2978 | 11.63*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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