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V-Lab

Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

45.04%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

48.81%

increased by 3.44%

1 Month

51.00%

increased by 5.63%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.26) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.1483
23.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1296
14.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4604
30.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.2576
5.81***

Persistence:

0.590

Half-life:

1 days