V-Lab
Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
45.04%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
48.81%
increased by 3.44%
1 Month
51.00%
increased by 5.63%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.26) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1483 | 23.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1296 | 14.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4604 | 30.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.2576 | 5.81*** |
Persistence:
0.590
Half-life:
1 days
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