V-Lab
SP Funds S&P Global Tech ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
28.02%
decreased by 2.04%
1 Week
28.02%
decreased by 2.04%
1 Month
28.01%
decreased by 2.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.93) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2532 | 8.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1193 | 14.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7660 | 59.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.9301 | 15.58*** |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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