V-Lab
SP Funds S&P Global Tech ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
27.06%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
27.94%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
28.45%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7457 | 23.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1792 | 12.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5058 | 0.29 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2833 | 0.28 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5549 | 0.35 |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
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