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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

40.47%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Week

40.44%

decreased by 1.27%

1 Month

39.85%

decreased by 1.86%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:41 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0206
3.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8140
51.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1167
9.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0638
0.91
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1603
2.38**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8245
10.30***

Persistence:

0.893

Half-life:

6 days