V-Lab
CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
29.53%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
29.75%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Month
31.16%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0163 | 2.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8184 | 48.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1188 | 9.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0884 | 1.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1655 | 2.03** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8058 | 7.91*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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