CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
40.47%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
40.44%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
39.85%
decreased by 1.86%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0206 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8140 | 51.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1167 | 9.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0638 | 0.91 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1603 | 2.38** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8245 | 10.30*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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