V-Lab
CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
20.83%
increased by 0.91%
1 Week
21.44%
increased by 1.52%
1 Month
22.86%
increased by 2.94%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0152 | 0.70 |
| βGARCH | 0.8491 | 24.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.1043 | 3.65*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1635 | 1.32 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1721 | 1.15 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7593 | 4.20*** |
0.916
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0152 | 0.70 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8491 | 24.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1043 | 3.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1635 | 1.32 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1721 | 1.15 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7593 | 4.20*** |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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