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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

29.53%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Week

29.75%

decreased by 1.20%

1 Month

31.16%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0163
2.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8184
48.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1188
9.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0884
1.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1655
2.03**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8058
7.91***

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days