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CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

20.83%

increased by 0.91%

1 Week

21.44%

increased by 1.52%

1 Month

22.86%

increased by 2.94%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

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graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0152
0.70
βGARCH0.8491
24.64***
γleverage0.1043
3.65***
λ₁tau intercept0.1635
1.32
λ₂forecast adj.0.1721
1.15
λ₃tau persistence0.7593
4.20***

0.916

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0152
0.70
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8491
24.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1043
3.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1635
1.32
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1721
1.15
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7593
4.20***

Persistence:

0.916

Half-life:

8 days