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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

40.65%

decreased by 1.71%

1 Week

41.36%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

43.28%

increased by 0.92%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3715
5.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1169
3.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8271
15.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.7518
2.63***

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days