CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
40.65%
decreased by 1.71%
1 Week
41.36%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
43.28%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3715 | 5.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1169 | 3.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8271 | 15.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.7518 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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