V-Lab
Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.34%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
15.34%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
15.34%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 15068 trading days (~59.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0501 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.4753 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
15068 days
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