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V-Lab

Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

15.34%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

15.34%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

15.34%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 15068 trading days (~59.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0501
0.02
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

1.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.4753
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

15068 days