V-Lab
Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
6.36%
1 Week
14.54%
1 Month
1,197.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 110% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2824 | 64.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7635 | 34.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1482 | -3.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0500 | 0.13 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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