V-Lab
Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
5.01%
1 Week
3,781,852.88%
1 Month
15,015,639,846,506,710,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 138.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7083 | 185.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -151.06*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1001 | 204.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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