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V-Lab

Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

6.36%

increased by 2.81%

1 Week

14.54%

increased by 10.99%

1 Month

1,197.65%

increased by 1,194.10%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 110% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

111
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2824
64.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7635
34.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1482
-3.93***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.01
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0500
0.13
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.16

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days