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V-Lab

Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

5.01%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Week

3,781,852.88%

increased by 3,781,846.97%

1 Month

15,015,639,846,506,710,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 15,015,639,846,506,710,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
138.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7083
185.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-151.06***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1001
204.66***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days