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V-Lab

Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

16.98%

increased by 0.60%

1 Week

17.12%

increased by 0.74%

1 Month

17.40%

increased by 1.02%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1498
2.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8446
17.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0684
1.75*

Persistence:

0.879

Half-life:

5 days