Global X Gold Yield ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
26.61%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
26.54%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
26.29%
decreased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0087 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0588 | 7.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9422 | 159.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0131 | -1.08 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
125 days
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