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Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

11.79%

increased by 1.36%

1 Week

12.24%

increased by 1.81%

1 Month

13.60%

increased by 3.17%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

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graph of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 9, 2010 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0413
4.49***
αARCH0.0155
0.42
βGARCH0.8231
29.89***
γleverage0.2545
4.36***

0.966

Persistence

20d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0413
4.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0155
0.42
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8231
29.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2545
4.36***

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days