Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.80%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
13.16%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
14.26%
increased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0414 | 17.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0165 | 1.75* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8227 | 118.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2537 | 17.04*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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