V-Lab
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
10.92%
increased by 0.61%
1 Week
11.47%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
13.07%
increased by 2.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2010 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0413 | 4.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0159 | 0.43 |
| βGARCH | 0.8226 | 29.77*** |
| γleverage | 0.2549 | 4.30*** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0413 | 4.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0159 | 0.43 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8226 | 29.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2549 | 4.30*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
Other Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs