Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
33.35%
decreased by 2.87%
1 Week
32.58%
decreased by 3.64%
1 Month
29.96%
decreased by 6.26%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2010 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0412 | 4.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.0159 | 0.43 |
| βGARCH | 0.8230 | 30.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.2566 | 4.42*** |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0412 | 4.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0159 | 0.43 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8230 | 30.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2566 | 4.42*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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