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V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

10.92%

increased by 0.61%

1 Week

11.47%

increased by 1.16%

1 Month

13.07%

increased by 2.76%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 9, 2010 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0413
4.49***
αARCH0.0159
0.43
βGARCH0.8226
29.77***
γleverage0.2549
4.30***

0.966

Persistence

20d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0413
4.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0159
0.43
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8226
29.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2549
4.30***

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days