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V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

10.95%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

11.49%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

13.10%

increased by 1.93%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 9, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0414
17.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0160
1.72*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8229
119.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2543
17.11***

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days