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Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

33.35%

decreased by 2.87%

1 Week

32.58%

decreased by 3.64%

1 Month

29.96%

decreased by 6.26%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 9, 2010 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0412
4.52***
αARCH0.0159
0.43
βGARCH0.8230
30.12***
γleverage0.2566
4.42***

0.967

Persistence

21d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0412
4.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0159
0.43
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8230
30.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2566
4.42***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days