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V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

12.80%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Week

13.16%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Month

14.26%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 9, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0414
17.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0165
1.75*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8227
118.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2537
17.04***

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days