V-Lab
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
10.95%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
11.49%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
13.10%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0414 | 17.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0160 | 1.72* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8229 | 119.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2543 | 17.11*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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