V-Lab
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.05%
increased by 0.34%
1 Week
14.24%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
14.78%
increased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2010 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.2096 | 3.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9448 | 80.10*** |
| γleverage | -0.1799 | -5.06*** |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2096 | 3.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9448 | 80.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1799 | -5.06*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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