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Vanguard S&P 500 ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

14.05%

increased by 0.34%

1 Week

14.24%

increased by 0.53%

1 Month

14.78%

increased by 1.07%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 9, 2010 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0003
0.01
αARCH0.2096
3.78***
βGARCH0.9448
80.10***
γleverage-0.1799
-5.06***

0.945

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0003
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2096
3.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9448
80.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1799
-5.06***

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days